When linehaul falls seven weeks in a row and diesel climbs 88 cents in six, the number that kills you is not the rate — it is the gap between them. That gap is the whole story of the week of August 31, 2026, and it is a pricing problem, not a news item. Here are the four numbers that should be on your screen before you counter a broker today, and what each one should change about how you book.
The Four Numbers
For the week ending August 27, DAT’s national linehaul spot averages came in at $2.21 a mile for dry van (down 4 cents), $2.63 for reefer (flat), and $2.70 for flatbed (down 2 cents), as FleetOwner reported from DAT and FTR data. Those are linehaul figures — fuel excluded — which is the number you should be negotiating against, not the all-in rate a broker quotes you.
On the fuel side, the EIA weekly retail diesel average jumped 19.8 cents to $5.652 a gallon, putting it within 15.8 cents of the all-time record of $5.810 set in June 2022, according to the EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures did pull back 22.7 cents early this week, but retail takes several days to follow, so do not price a load assuming relief has already arrived at the pump.
Why Rates Are Not Following Fuel This Time
FTR and Truckstop logged a seventh consecutive weekly decline in dry van spot rates and a tenth straight for flatbed, with the total broker-posted rate at its lowest level since early April. In the spring, a diesel spike pulled rates up with it. This time it has not, and FTR’s own read is that fuel-cost recovery matters less once the underlying market has already recovered — total spot rates are still running more than 37 percent above the same 2025 week.
That is the practical lesson. Do not walk into a negotiation expecting the broker to hand you fuel back in the linehaul. Ask for it as a surcharge, on the surcharge’s own terms, using this week’s EIA print rather than a stale monthly average.
Fuel now makes up about 21 percent of a motor carrier’s cost per mile, up from roughly 13 percent at the peak of the pandemic.
Corey Klujsza, RXO VP of Pricing and Procurement, via JOC
Where the Capacity Actually Is
Rate direction and load-to-truck ratio tell different stories, and the ratio is the one that decides whether you can hold a floor. Reefer has been the tightest of the three equipment types this month, with DAT reporting a national reefer load-to-truck ratio around 19 against roughly 11 a year ago, per DAT’s reefer report. Dry van’s ratio has been running near 9.9 — soft by reefer standards, but a high for that week of the year and well above the 6.4 posted during the 2021 boom.
Translation for your board this week: reefer capacity is the scarce thing, so reefer is where a firm counter is most likely to hold. Van is where you will get worn down if you have no cost floor written in front of you. Flatbed is still correcting off a summer peak and is the equipment type most likely to punish a carrier who repositions on speculation.
What to Do With These Numbers
- Reprice the fuel surcharge against this week’s EIA number, not last month’s. A surcharge built on July averages is roughly 20 cents a gallon behind reality right now.
- Negotiate linehaul, quote all-in second. Know that van linehaul is $2.21 and reefer is $2.63 before the call, so you can tell the difference between a fair offer and a fuel-padded one.
- Recalculate cost per mile before you set a floor. With fuel at roughly 21 percent of cost per mile and non-fuel operating costs running about 29 percent above the prior market peak, a floor you set in June is not a floor anymore.
- Favor reefer counters when the ratio supports you. Tightest capacity of the three equipment types is the one place a hard number is likely to stick this week.
- Stop deadheading toward flatbed strength that has already passed. Ten straight weeks of decline is a trend, not a dip.
- Warn your carriers about oil, not just diesel. Lubricant base-stock prices are up sharply this year, and shops are already passing along 8 to 10 percent increases on engine oil, per CCJ. Budget the next PM higher.
What to Watch Next Week
Two things. First, whether the diesel futures pullback shows up in the EIA retail print — if it does, expect brokers to try to claw back surcharge before your carrier’s actual pump cost drops. Second, the Labor Day distortion: a late holiday scrambles the usual early-September van bump, so treat next week’s numbers as noisy and do not rebuild your floor around a single week’s move. Set your cost per mile now, write it on the same screen as your load board, and make every counter this week reference it.
